The Smart-City Disaster Playbook

SU
Aug 4
12 min read

How to recognize the pattern BEFORE your town burns, floods, or gets wiped off the map.

1. (Smart) City Planning Was Already Drafted (BEFORE)

Check your local archives:

“Transit-Oriented Development” maps
Zoning overlays
Sustainability metrics
WEF / ICLEI / UN pilot partnerships

These aren’t reactive.

They’re preloaded templates.

The disaster just pushes “Enter.”

2. Insurance Retreat (PRE-DISASTER)

Before catastrophe strikes, insurers pull out:

Non-renewals
Coverage drops
Premiums skyrocket

So when disaster hits…

People can’t rebuild.

The land becomes vulnerable.

By design.

3. Sirens Fail (DURING DISASTER)

No alerts.

No texts.

No sirens.

But there are roadblocks—barriers to fleeing or rescue.

Emergency systems either fail or are never triggered.

Mass confusion. Maximum loss.

Then they blame it on “climate change fatigue” or “technical failure.”

4. The Blueprint Drops (IMMEDIATELY AFTER)

Days after the tragedy, a “rebuild” plan launches:

Microgrids / Smart Grids
Transit-only zones
Underground power
Micro-apartments
EV-only corridors
Stack-n-pack housing
Mixed-use zoning

These aren’t created in response.

They’re activated on cue.

Most are already written into city planning years in advance.

Know your city’s comprehensive plan.

5. Land Transfers Begin (WEEKS AFTER)

Residents are displaced and can’t rebuild.

Insurance doesn’t pay.

FEMA stalls. Relief is delayed.

Regulations multiply.

Then the land is bought up:

Developers
NGOs
“Recovery Partnerships”

What rises isn’t your town.

It’s a prototype.

6. The Language of Global Control Creeps In

Watch for the phrases:

“Build Back Better”
“Sustainable Human Settlements”
“Smart Resilience”
“15-Minute Cities”
“SDG-11: Inclusive, Safe, Resilient, Sustainable”

They sound helpful.

Progressive.

Necessary.

But post-catastrophe, they signal a paradigm shift—

Not rebuilding, but reformatting.

7. Smart Infrastructure Unveiled (MONTHS TO YEARS AFTER)

What returns includes:

Facial recognition crosswalks
Geo-fenced transit zones
AI zoning platforms
Cashless/public-only mobility
Digitized utilities
Enforced energy quotas

It’s not “resilience.”

It’s restructuring of the grid

8. Emergency Personnel Shuffle (BEFORE & AFTER)

Often before the disaster:

Key leadership resigns or is quietly reassigned
Emergency plans revised

Then after:

Agencies merged or renamed
“Tech-forward” positions appear:
- Resilience Officers
- Digital Emergency Coordinators
- Smart Mobility Liaisons

The human response system is reformatted for a new governance model.

This Is the Smart-City Disaster Playbook.

And it’s already playing out in:

Lahaina
Paradise
The Palisades
Asheville
Central Texas
The Dakotas

Different disasters.

Same pattern.

Let’s test them to the playbook!

Paradise, CA — Burned to Build

Let’s test Paradise against the Smart-City Disaster Playbook.

Spoiler: the fire wasn’t just a tragedy.

It was a prototype.

1. (SMART) City Planning Was Already Drafted (BEFORE)

📍 Paradise was under California SB 375 & AB 32 mandates—pushing compact growth, reduced vehicle miles, and regional smart zoning.

Placer & Butte Counties had already submitted sustainable development plans via Metropolitan Planning Organizations.

Paradise’s “revitalization” vision existed before the 2018 Camp Fire.

2. Insurance Retreat (PRE-DISASTER)

Between 2015–2018, tens of thousands of Californians in wildfire zones lost home insurance.

Many Paradise residents were uninsured or underinsured.

Insurers had started dropping high-risk zones.

The FAIR Plan (CA’s last-resort coverage) had ballooned in enrollment.

Paradise was already economically primed for clearance.

3. Sirens Fail (DURING DISASTER)

Paradise had no sirens.

Emergency managers relied on opt-in phone systems and radio stations.

Communications failed.

Evacuation orders were fragmented and late.

People burned in cars. Others ran through flames.

Then came the excuse: “we didn’t want to cause panic.”

4. The Blueprint Drops (IMMEDIATELY AFTER)

Within weeks:

• PG&E settled

• Housing task forces launched

• “Climate-resilient” zoning was proposed

• Underground utilities began getting funding

• Smart meter programs expanded statewide

Paradise’s rebuild was touted as a “national resilience model.”

Not recovery—restructuring.

5. Land Transfers Begin (WEEKS AFTER)

Survivors received minimal aid.

FEMA trailers were delayed.

Insurance payouts were slow or denied.

Then land acquisition began:

• Developers offered cash to desperate families

• Zoning allowed multi-use developments

• Planners floated no single-family zoning in future designs

6. Global Agenda Language Creeps In

State-level recovery plans mirrored WEF/UN language:

“Resilient Rebuilding”

“Sustainable Settlements”

“Equity-focused zoning”

“Smart growth corridors”

They called Paradise a model for “climate-aligned living.”

7. Smart Infrastructure Unveiled (MONTHS AFTER)

• PG&E received billions to bury lines, but also deployed smart meters statewide

• Local utilities implemented grid-control software

• Broadband expansions tied to FEMA redevelopment corridors

• Smart city vendors joined infrastructure talks by mid-2019

8. Emergency Personnel Shuffle (BEFORE & AFTER)

• Butte County had a staffing shortage before the fire

• Training for wildfire evacuation had just been cut due to budget

• After the fire, new leadership came in

• Emergency management was merged into broader “resilience” frameworks

Paradise California—The Smart-City Playbook

Paradise wasn’t just a tragedy—it was a beta test.

The “resilient rebuild” became the model.

Lahaina followed.

So did Santa Rosa.

Next could be your town.

Lahaina Under the Smart‑City Playbook

1. (SMART) City Planning Was Already Drafted (BEFORE)

Before disaster struck, Maui County was drafting the Lahaina Long-Term Recovery Plan (LTRP)—shaped with input from 3,800 residents and aligned with sustainability goals.

Priority projects and zoning overlays were already mapped in mid‑2024, embedded with resilience and smart-city framing long before restructuring began (2024 Draft shared publicly).

2. Insurance Retreat (PRE-DISASTER)

Local media report many Lahaina property owners were under‑insured or uninsured prior to the August fire—making rebuilding virtually impossible after loss.

This created financial vulnerability and clearance opportunity—classic pre‑quake or pre‑fire programming.

3. Sirens Fail (DURING DISASTER)

Maui has over 80 civil defense sirens—the world’s largest network per capita. None were activated when the fire began, due to departmental decisions about inappropriate alerts for wildfire events.

Emergency communications were chaotic. Many residents only saw smoke before flames overtook them.

4. The Blueprint Drops (IMMEDIATELY AFTER)

Within days, the Mike Beehler whitepaper and county-led Lahaina recovery framework rolled out plans for microgrids, underground utilities, EV infrastructure, transit zones, stacking housing, and net-zero design. These were not reactive—they were activated from prewritten plans.

5. Land Transfers Begin (WEEKS AFTER)

Mass displacement followed. Insurance claims lagged. FEMA housing stalled ([turn0news41]). FEMA’s short‑term hotel assistance transitioned slowly and modular housing plans began under centralized control (FEMA / state-private partnerships).

6. The Language of Global Control Creeps In

Post-disaster messaging leaned hard into phrases like SDG-11, Build Back Better, Sustainable Human Settlements, and resilience frameworks grounded in global policy—even though similar language emerged in years of planning before the fire.

7. Smart Infrastructure Unveiled (MONTHS AFTER)

The post-recovery vision includes:

Digitized utility infrastructure
Smart zoning overlays aligned with the new LTRP
EV corridors and sustainability-driven transportation planning

This mirrors global smart-city prototypes without labeling them explicitly.

8. Emergency Personnel Shuffle (BEFORE & AFTER)

Hawaii’s fire staffing was chronically low—even before the fire. Lahaina station had only 5 firefighters per truck, while a standard call requires 40 per industry norms.
Dispatch centers were understaffed—eight dispatchers fielded over 4,200 calls in two hours without wildfire protocols.
Post-crisis: Over 32 staffing & equipment recommendations emerged from police and fire After-Action Reports, including appointing high-ranking officials in communications centers and creating new resilience liaison roles.
Maui Fire Dept added new recruit classes and service support roles in 2025 (inspections, public education, health and safety, info-officers).

Pattern Match: How Lahaina Fits the Playbook

Lahaina’s case checks every box.

The planning and technical diagrams? In motion well before the crisis.
The emergency systems? Failed, then were repurposed.
The language? Borrowed from global frameworks and made local mandate.
The infrastructure? Not recovery—it’s reprogramming.

It’s not just rebuilding. It’s resetting.

Santa Rosa, CA — Tubbs Fire as a Prototype

Let’s put Santa Rosa to the test, following the Playbook framework exactly as we did with Lahaina.

1. (SMART) City Planning Was Already Drafted (BEFORE)

Santa Rosa and Sonoma County had already adopted Transit‑Oriented Development maps (SMART rail stations opened 2017), zoning overlays, and sustainability metrics. These were integrated into Recovery & Resiliency Framework planning even before rebuilding began.

2. Insurance Retreat (PRE‑DISASTER)

By 2024, insurers like State Farm were non-renewing policies in high-fire areas of Sonoma County—many houses in Tubbs Fire zones were uninsured or underinsured long before 2017.

3. Sirens Fail (DURING DISASTER)

Santa Rosa lacked mass notification sirens. Alert systems were limited to opt-in SMS and reverse‑911. When the fire struck, evacuation orders didn’t reach everyone—mass confusion and high loss followed fast-burning conditions.

4. The Blueprint Drops (IMMEDIATELY AFTER)

By November 2017, the city established a Resilient City Permit Center. By December, the Recovery & Resiliency Framework finalized. A Renewal Enterprise District (RED) was created to fast-track denser, sustainable housing—funded with $20M from the PG&E settlement.

5. Land Transfers Begin (WEEKS AFTER)

PG&E settlement funds offered to purchase lots or support rebuilding. FEMA trailers delayed; insurance payouts slow. In Coffey Park, many residents accepted rebuild templates or sold to developers eager to optimize under new codes.

6. The Language of Global Control Creeps In

Recovery language aligned with UN/WEF frameworks: resilience, equity zoning, climate smart corridors, and sustainability-driven permitting—echoing global agendas under mainstream disguise.

7. Smart Infrastructure Unveiled (MONTHS AFTER)

SMART commuter rail service rolled out August 2017 just before the fire. Post-fire, utilities pushed smart meter networks, grid control upgrades, broadband expansion tied to resilience corridors—and infill housing via SMART Village development zone .

8. Emergency Personnel Shuffle (BEFORE & AFTER)

Staffing was thin before the fire: emergency planning overtime limited. Afterward, the county created a centralized Office of Recovery and Resiliency, restructured permitting, and prioritized tech-forward staffing coordination—reshaping governance to match the new resilience model

Santa Rosa’s Tubbs Fire checks every box of the Smart-City Disaster Playbook. The playbook isn’t theory—it’s operating logic:

Planning months ahead
Catastrophe
Smart rebuilding rollout
Tech-based governance shifts

Palisades Fire — Launching the Playbook in L.A.

Palisades didn’t just burn—it triggered an agenda. Here’s how the playbook fits.

1. (Smart) City Planning Was Already Drafted (BEFORE)

Pacific Palisades wasn’t on smart-city maps—but Los Angeles had ongoing climate resilience and development overlays, especially TOD and sustainability zoning, tied to the broader Westside regional plans.

2. Insurance Retreat (PRE‑DISASTER)

About 1,600 State Farm policies in Palisades were canceled in July 2024, with many residents shifting to the under-capitalized FAIR Plan—placing the area among California’s most exposed regions before the blaze hit.

3. Sirens Fail (DURING DISASTER)

No widespread activation of evacuation alerts occurred during the fire. Evacuations were chaotic, reliant on ad-hoc communication while infrastructure failed across power and water systems (fire hydrants ran dry).

4. The Blueprint Drops (IMMEDIATELY AFTER)

By March 21, 2025, Mayor Bass issued an emergency executive order pushing fast-tracked permits for all-electric, fire-resistant homes and utility upgrades—including undergrounding power lines and grid hardening.

5. Land Transfers Begin (WEEKS AFTER)

Recovery drag and insurance denial slowed rebuilding. Out of ~7,000 destroyed properties, fewer than 52 permits had been approved five months post-fire. Developers and NGOs began positioning for rebuild influence or salvage opportunities.

6. The Language of Global Control Creeps In

Recovery messaging leaned heavily on “resilience,” “fire-resistant materials,” “sustainable urbanism”—echoing UN/FEMA frameworks. The city connected rebuilding to “future-proofing” ethos under SDG‑like signposts .

7. Smart Infrastructure Unveiled (MONTHS AFTER)

The redevelopment push included:

Burying power lines (Edison-led)
Launching EV corridors and modern grid control
Green infrastructure upgrades
Aesthetic zone redesign aligning with resilience design standards

8. Emergency Personnel Shuffle (BEFORE & AFTER)

Post-fire, city agencies created centralized recovery coordination roles. Departments like planning, safety, and utilities were reshuffled under new resilience mandates. Although pre-fire staffing cuts weren’t public, the structure was swiftly recoded under emergency authorities.

Central Texas — Floods & the Smart‑City Playbook

Did the flash floods follow the same script? Let’s test the playbook:

1. City Planning Was Already Drafted (BEFORE)

Texas has long resisted strict zoning, but growth in Flash Flood Alley (the Guadalupe River basin) was underway with new flood-resistant infrastructure proposals. State development plans and USDA resilience grants laid groundwork months prior. Local flood mitigation funding requests dating back to 2017 were repeatedly stalled—showing delayed prep and scripted vulnerability.

2. Insurance Retreat (PRE‑DISASTER)

By 2024, over 39,000 Texas homes let flood insurance lapse—largely due to cost ($779/year median). Only ~7% of homes statewide held flood insurance, even in high-risk zones. When July 2025 hit, many were left unprotected.

3. Sirens Fail (DURING DISASTER)

Despite forecasts, local systems failed. Kerr County delayed CodeRED alerts by at least 90 minutes, with some arriving hours late. Comfort, a town with an independent warning system, had no casualties—highlighting failure in comparable areas.

4. The Blueprint Drops (IMMEDIATELY AFTER)

Within days, Governor Abbott requested federal disaster help. Legislators convened a special session by July 21 to focus on flood warning reforms, infrastructure mandates, and resilience protocols. USDA expedited disaster aid, and state resilience initiatives were launched—not reactive but pre-written scripts activated.

5. Land Transfers Begin (WEEKS AFTER)

Mass displacement and insurance shortfalls forced residents to accept minimal FEMA assistance ($8,000 average grants)—far below rebuilding costs. Volunteers and nonprofits filled gaps, while land ownership pressures surfaced in displaced rural areas.

6. The Language of Global Control Creeps In

Politicians and state agencies deployed rhetoric like “climate resilience,” “inclusive infrastructure,” and state planning aligned with HUD/HUD-SDG frameworks. FEMA Director hailed the flood response as a “model,” echoing national resilience branding.

7. Smart Infrastructure Revealed (MONTHS AFTER)

Post-rebuild efforts included mapping flood corridors for broadband and transit resilience. Texas lawmakers proposed upgraded flood warning infrastructure. Offers for centralized recovery centers in Leander included tech-aided coordination (CapMetro shuttle support, SBA, FEMA, multi-agency hubs).

8. Emergency Personnel Shuffle (BEFORE & AFTER)

In the years leading up, FEMA staff cuts and state resistance to federal funding weakened preparedness. Dispatch failures and understaffing were chronic. Post-crisis, lawmakers launched restructuring committees, authorized new leadership, and rehired emergency coordinators under resilience frameworks.

Central Texas delivered tragedy—but also a textbook.

The Smart‑City Disaster Playbook played out in real time:

insurance collapse ➝ failed warnings ➝ prewritten recovery governance ➝ smart-initiative branding.

It’s not a fluke—it’s infrastructure scripting.

The Dakotas — Tornado Outbreak Unmasked

Testing North & South Dakota under the Smart‑City Playbook. Can you spot the pattern? Let’s go.

1. City Planning Was Already Drafted (BEFORE)

Midwestern states—including South Dakota and North Dakota—are operating under updated State Hazard Mitigation Plans aligned with national All-Hazard Approaches, revised between 2022–2024. These include guidance on coordinated urban planning, resilience zones, and county-level mitigation coordination frameworks with FEMA integration.

These plans were pre-approved and publicly adopted before the 2025 storms struck.

2. Insurance Retreat (PRE‑DISASTER)

Between 2020–2024, disaster exposure in the Midwest skyrocketed. Insurance premiums soared, deductibles rose, and policy non-renewals increased in tornado-prone counties—even before the catastrophic May weekend. Many rural homeowners were left uninsured or heavily underinsured against wind/hail damage.

3. Sirens Fail (DURING DISASTER)

While NOAA fires in early 2025 led to staff cuts, it was reported that critical meteorologists and forecasters were removed just before the outbreak, raising concerns about forecast and warning capacity

Despite system being technically functional, localized alerts reportedly did not reach all residents before EF3‑EF4 tornadoes struck. Evacuation communication fragmented or failed.

4. The Blueprint Drops (IMMEDIATELY AFTER)

State governments activated emergency operations and disaster plans within hours of the event. In North Dakota, Governor Armstrong declared statewide disaster and activated the Emergency Operations Plan, triggering pre-scripted federal-state aid procedures, community relief funds, and rebuild frameworks tied to hazard mitigation roles already defined in mitigation plans.

5. Land Transfers Begin (WEEKS AFTER)

Insurance claims began—but coverage was limited. FEMA aid and state grants were slow to arrive. Relief funds (from state foundations and NGOs) prioritized basic replacement, not full rebuilds. Rural landholdings faced consolidation pressure as families sold damaged properties to recovering contractors or developers.

6. The Language of Global Control Creeps In

State and regional communication leaned into buzzwords like resilience, risk mitigation, state-led hazard planning, with explicit references to FEMA’s hazard mitigation planning under the Stafford Act and alignment with broader federal frameworks—including encouragement to adopt resilience metrics and coordinated zoning overlays .

7. Smart Infrastructure Revealed (MONTHS AFTER)

In the months that followed, counties proposed upgrades to early-warning infrastructure, centralized coordination centers, broadband-linked tornado response protocols, and digitized mapping-based mitigation overlays in hazard zones, effectively enabling smart overlay planning—though these were marketed as safety and recovery tools.

8. Emergency Personnel Shuffle (BEFORE & AFTER)

Before the storms, NOAA fired hundreds of employees—many in National Weather Service—and key forecasting positions were disrupted days before the event, raising concerns about degraded warning capacity.
Afterward, states reorganized emergency staffing. South and North Dakota leveraged updated Disaster Operations Plans, coordinated through divisions of homeland security, reassigning leadership and activating regional mitigation roles per legislative reactivations—often under FEMA’s All-Hazard Program structure

Asheville (Hurricane Helene)—Tested Against the Smart‑City Disaster Playbook

Each phase is aligned with key signals and official sources.

1. SMART CITY PLANNING WAS ALREADY DRAFTED (BEFORE)

Asheville had active Resilience & Climate Planning and Transit-Oriented Development strategies in place before Helene, including the Wilma Dykeman RiverWay Plan, greenway zoning, sustainable transit corridors, and coordinated flood resilience design from 2017 onward.
A Western NC Resilience Symposium in 2023 helped cement flood and landslide planning frameworks tied to FEMA and climate benchmarks.

2. INSURANCE RETREAT (PRE‑DISASTER)

Before Helene, only ~0.7% of Buncombe County homes had flood insurance, despite being in vulnerable river basins. That left most residents exposed and unable to recover fully post-flood.
Local coverage was minimal even though scientific research had long predicted rising flood risk in the mountains.

3. SIRENS FAIL (DURING DISASTER)

Though forecasts anticipated intense rainfall, Asheville lacked mass warning sirens. Communications broke down as power and cellular networks failed .
Evacuation was chaotic; roads were washed out. No consistent alerts were delivered to many residents.

4. THE BLUEPRINT DROPS (IMMEDIATELY AFTER)

Within days, city/state agencies rolled out the Asheville Disaster Recovery Action Plan with ~$225M in HUD Block Grants, including $125M earmarked for infrastructure resiliency along flood-prone river corridors including parks and water systems .
This mirrored pre-established city planning language calling for mixed-use corridors, transit access, and flood-resistant green infrastructure.

5. LAND TRANSFERS BEGIN (WEEKS AFTER)

FEMA temporary housing arrived slowly, leaving many displaced. Private insurance payouts covered only ~5 % of actual flood damages .
Community nonprofits and nonprofits stepped in—but redevelopment pressure surfaced in floodplain-sensitive zones, raising land consolidation risk.

6. THE LANGUAGE OF GLOBAL CONTROL CREEPS IN

Post-flood narratives leaned heavily into “climate resilience,” “sustainable human settlements,” and inclusive planning tied to UN/FEMA-style hazard mitigation frameworks.
Phrases echoing SDG‑11 and smart resiliency became normalized in recovery planning documents.

7. SMART INFRASTRUCTURE UNVEILED (MONTHS AFTER)

Asheville began deploying:
- Rain gardens, bioswales, permeable pavement
- Flood corridor overlays for stormwater mapping
- Transit enhancements along river corridors
- Coordination hubs for broadband-linked emergency response
- Increased green infrastructure in RAD & Biltmore zones.

These are smart city tools dressed as resilience solutions.

8. EMERGENCY PERSONNEL SHUFFLE (BEFORE & AFTER)

Though not as dramatic as NOAA cuts elsewhere, Asheville and Buncombe County updated their emergency roles post-Helene: a centralized recovery office, resilience coordinators, and landscape/watershed planners embedded in future-response systems.
State policymakers flagged FEMA guidelines and revised emergency management protocols—effectively recoding leadership systems into climate-aligned frameworks.